Understanding Trends (Spring 2015)

Lecture One from Analyzing Trends Spring 2015 at Parsons the New School for Design.

Published in: Marketing, Business, Education

Understanding Trends (Spring 2015) from Tim Stock

Transcript

• 1. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 1 Understanding Trends Analyzing Trends Spring 2015
• 2. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 2 how would you define a trend? what words come to mind?
• 3. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 3 first tip: always consult a good dictionary words are important to how we frame things
• 4. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 4 trendspotting vs. trend analysis is there a difference?
• 5. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 5 trendspotting leads to fads a skimming the surface to capitalize on culture
• 6. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 6 intelligent analysis of culture is the foundation of trend analysis
• 7. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 7 trends are about “why” more than “what” Culture
• 8. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 8 the mechanics of culture key elements for understanding change language patternstime
• 9. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 9 past present future patterns patterns trends evolve over time they are about human behavior (how can we analyze that?)
• 10. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 10 past present future patterns patterns trend analysis leverages this dynamic view they are about human behavior (how can we analyze that?) not cool cool not cool
• 11. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 11 analyzing beards why have beards trended over the last five years?
• 12. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 12 analyzing beards over time does the meaning change? why? 1950 1970 1990 2015 beards
• 13. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 13 beards and existential themes analyzing the state of the human condition
• 14. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 14 beards as cultural signifier men working out concepts of masculinity
• 15. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 15 do we drink more coffee today than in 1945?
• 16. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 16 we actually drank more coffee in 1945 (bad coffee…but coffee)
• 17. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 17 plus/minuses of tracking by numbers Google Trends track occurrences of search terms
• 18. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 18 language and trends to understand trends we need a more nuanced understanding of language
• 19. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 19 past present future patterns patterns analyzing coffee over time what other words become associated with coffee? coffee coffee coffee
• 20. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 20 analyzing coffee over time how has the culture of coffee evolved recently? rituals symbolsvalues
• 21. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 21 patterns emerge as cultural systems systems that create and propel language
• 22. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 visualizing culture as a dynamic system how meaning migrates through culture 22
• 23. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 analytical expressive countercollective visualizing culture as a dynamic system how meaning migrates through culture symbol establishing the language zeitgeist cultural saturation identity spreading the message action wiring the behavior counter culture collective culture patterns migration 23
• 24. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 visualizing innovation the diffusion of innovation seeks to structure how ideas evolve 24
• 25. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 25 analytical expressive countercollective innovators symbolic the early innovators community kinship breeding adoption action influencers trend conditions give status identity mass market easy to join in zeitgeist product innovation as intervention in existing cultural systems of language and meaning
• 26. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 26 analyzing kale
• 27. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 27 past present future patterns patterns analyzing kale trends don’t appear…. they evolve kale kale kale
• 28. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 28 the cultural system of kale cultural trends represent reappropriation of existing language rituals symbolsvalues
• 29. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 29 analyzing the culture of kale the language of products we consume provide clues rituals symbolsvalues
• 30. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 analytical expressive countercollectiveOrganic Farming Politics Community Food Co-Ops Diets Labeled Localized Chains New Urbanism FOOD ZEITGEIST Mass Retail FOOD AS BADGE FOOD AS RITUALFOOD AS SYMBOL patterns migration 30 the cultural system of organic
• 31. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 31 the language within cronuts reveals the real story analyzing cronuts past present future patterns patterns cronuts ??
• 32. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 32 boulangeries rising what is the language? what does it tell us? rituals symbolsvalues
• 33. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 33 food trucks rising what is the language? what does it tell us? rituals symbolsvalues
• 34. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 34 analyzing fast food what foods do we see emerging in culture? what shapes this?
• 35. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 35 past present future patterns patterns analyzing fast food how does the context shape the meaning of fast food? fast food fast food fast food
• 36. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 36 the ideology of fast food why do you think McDonald’s is advertising like this?
• 37. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 37 analyzing “the sharing economy" is the “sharing economy” really about just sharing? rituals symbolsvalues
• 38. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 38 what are the dynamics that make this work in culture? analyzing “the sharing economy"
• 39. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 39 how can we analyze this to predict potential outcomes? Google announces Uber competition
• 40. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 40 past present future patterns patterns what helps “sharing” evolve as a trend? own rent ? analyzing “the sharing economy"
• 41. TIM STOCK FALL 2014 the meaning of bicycles was not so clear in 2007 case: cannondale 41
• 42. TIM STOCK FALL 2014 the category was defined by assumptions of behavior what is a bicycle? 42
• 43. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 43 COLLECTIVE COUNTER EXPRESSIVEANALYTIC culture mapping the behavioral framework for each brand
• 44. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 44 pop culture sensorial sub culture For the Traditionalists, it’s about privilege and reinforcement. For Pop Mavericks, it’s about individuality and instant gratification. bike activists bike commuters bike packers/touring utility bikers fitness bikers bike messengers rocket bikers Bolivia’s Death Road bikers fixed gear urban bike pirates marathon cyclists road racers track racers cyclo-crossers tri-athletes underwater bikers parkour bikers mountain bikers snow bikers cliff riders COUNTER EXPRESSIVEANALYTICAL COLLECTIVE Realizers Strivers Freestylers Fearless behavioral archetypes give us the system of bicycle trends in culture
• 45. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 45 the cultures that shape the meaning of bicycles
• 46. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 Striver Culture Freestyler Culture Fearless Culture Realizer Culture 46 perception drives meaning in the interpretation of everyday things
• 47. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 47 measles outbreak in 2015 why is there a measles outbreak in Southern California?
• 48. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 48 anti-vaccination as ideology does the location of these outbreak tell us anything?
• 49. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 49 that ideology frames how we consume raw milk has its roots in concepts of government’s role rituals symbolsvalues
• 50. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 50 the “how” of food is ideological the emergence of pot politics has broader cultural implications rituals symbolsvalues
• 51. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 51 politics as ideological pattern the language of debates reflects cultural tensions patterns
• 52. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 52 visualizing political signifiers visualizing the language of the state of the union
• 53. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 53 science fiction and the future sci-fi is less about a precise framing of the future as it is a struggle to deal with our present state of being
• 54. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 54 projecting possible futures 2001 A Space Odyssey was released in 1968.
• 55. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 55 imagining the shape of progress Interstellar frames artificial intelligence with TARS in a unique way
• 56. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 56 imagining the shape of progress
• 57. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 57 framing the future as a system of codes Director Steven Spielberg’s Minority Report
• 58. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 58 the value of privacy in a post-digital world is this our face in the future? Futurist designer Jenny Lee has created a series of "digital skins" that she imagines might grace our lowly, animal mugs in the year 2060.
• 59. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 59 framing the future of relationships What does “Her” reveal about our present state?
• 60. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 60 how does technology shape relationships? is tech driving the shape of romance and relationships?
• 61. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 61 What does “The Hunger Games” reveal about our present state? framing the future of class
• 62. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 62 the growing tension in urban centers framing the future of class
• 63. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 63 our design shapes our future are we seeing unexpected outcomes from the Highline?
• 64. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 64 our design shapes our future are we seeing unexpected outcomes from the Highline?
• 65. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 65 developing a strategy for the future The Future of_____
• 66. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 66 developing a strategy for the future
• 67. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 67 brand people innovation is a mating game we need to synchronize with cultural signals and conspire in future stories signals
• 68. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 68 INNOVATION from signal to story... synchronizing brands for purpose and sustainability BRAND ARCHITECTURE storiessignals innovation is a mating game
• 69. TIM STOCK SPRING 2015 69 see you in 2 weeks assignments are on Canvas