2017 holiday survey: An annual analysis of the peak shopping season

2017 holiday survey: An annual analysis of the peak shopping season from Deloitte United States

1. 2017 holiday survey Retail in transition
2. Economic outlook & holiday spending
3. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 3 Holiday shopping season accounts for more than one-quarter of the annual US retail sales Holiday season is the biggest shopping season and involves… >$1 Trillion retail sales 1/4 of annual retail sales** 126 Million households >$110 Billion online sales 2017 retail holiday sales expected to rise by 4–4.5 percent over last year* **According to US census, 2016/17 annual retail sales were $3.7 trillion. Deloitte estimates $1 trillion would be ~1/4 annual retail sales. *According to Deloitte’s 2017 holiday season forecast, published September 20, 2017.
4. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 4 82% 66% 64% 67% 71% 68% 71% 59% 41% 51% 62% 59% 63% 71% 69% 75% 74% 79% 18% 34% 36% 33% 29% 32% 29% 41% 59% 49% 38% 42% 37% 29% 31% 25% 26% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Spend more/same Spend less Recession “How will your total holiday spending compare with last year's holiday season? Please consider all holiday gifts, holiday entertainment/socializing, holiday decorations, holiday donations, etc.” Almost 80% of consumers expect to spend the same or more this holiday season Holiday spending expectations continue to rise Compared to Last Holiday Season…
5. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 5 Current Household Financial Situation 15% 24% 21% 28% 29% 31% 33% 36% 37% 41% 42% 37% 37% 40% 41% 41% 39% 44%44% 34% 42% 35% 30% 29% 26% 25% 19% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 A lot/somewhat better The same A lot/somewhat worse More households perceive their financial situation as the same or better (81%) and fewer perceive their financial situation as worse (19%) Stronger household finances improve spending sentiment “Thinking about your household's current financial situation, would you say it is...”
6. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 6 Gifts only represent one third of average holiday spend Anticipated average spend (2017): $1,226 Non-gift categories – like socializing, entertaining and clothing for oneself – comprise the bulk of non-gift seasonal spending ₴ Actual products not gift cards. * Socializing & entertainment ◊2016 average gift spend ($426/-1% less) Gift vs. non-gift spendCategory spend $317 $113 $308 $172 $91 $133 $90 Gifts₴ Gift Cards Socializing outside home Entertaining at home Home furnishings Non-gift clothing Other (Misc.) $430 $314 $480 Gifts Non-Gift Experience
7. Holiday shopping: What, where and when?
8. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 8 22.0 23.1 21.5 18.2 16.8 14.7 12.8 12.9 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 “In total, what is the number of gifts, including gift certificates/cards that you expect to buy this holiday season?” On average, consumers plan to purchase nearly 15 gifts The number of gifts shoppers purchase has remained relatively flat since 2011 Number of Gifts Purchased
9. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 9 27% I prefer to buy gifts that are an experience (e.g., concert/show, vacation, restaurant, etc.) for the recipient 24% I plan to host or attend more holiday events with friends and/or family than participate in traditional gift exchange Roughly one quarter of shoppers plan experiences or entertaining in lieu of traditional gifts “Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how much you agree with each of the following statements.”
10. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 10 51% 49% 47% 49% 35% 40% 29% 39% 27% 33%34% 36% 23% 24% 18% 29% 18% 26% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Clothing Gift cards or gift certificates Electronics (net)* Books Games, Toys, Dolls, etc. Food/Liquor Money (Cash or check) Jewelry Electronics and games & toys rise in popularity and luxury categories continue to climb Clothing and gift cards tie for the top gift giving spot Cosmetics/fragrances/ health & beauty aids “Which of the following types of gifts do you plan to buy this holiday season? And which of the following gifts would you like to receive this holiday season?” *Games, Toys, Dolls, etc. (excluding computer games or video games) Electronics (42%), gift cards (39%) and cash (36%) are the top gifts to receive
11. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 11 Percent of average anticipated gift spend Source: Deloitte survey Avg. spend is calculated only for the respondents who plan to purchase at least one item from the above mentioned categories *Others include data plans, gift cards/gift certificates/money, tickets to events, and socializing experiences. N=5085 Clothing & Accessories 25% Electronics & Accessories 16% Toys & Hobbies 18% Home & Kitchen 11% Health & Beauty 12% Others (misc.) 18% Clothing consumes 25% of planned budget, with toys (18%) and electronics (16%) rounding out 60% of shoppers’ total allocation
12. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 12 Give indulgent gifts 53% Prefer to buy gifts that are more likely to be indulgences that people will not buy for themselves Shop for themselves Agree that they also buy gifts for themselves when shopping for others 36% 40% 43% 50% 46% 50% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 “Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how much you agree with each of the following statements.” More than half plan to spoil their recipients with indulgent gifts Half of consumers shop for themselves while shopping for others
13. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 13 51% 44% 27% 28% 45% 55% 24% 21% 20% 20% 15% 19% 14% 18% 12% 16% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 “At which of the following retail sources or venues will you likely shop for holiday gifts?” “How many individual shopping trips do you expect to take when purchasing holiday gifts over the next several months? (A "trip“ is defined as a single outing to visit one or more physical stores.)” Traditional Department Stores Toy Stores Off-Price Stores Restaurants/Fast-Food Home Improvement Stores Specialty Clothing Internet (including auction sites) Outlet stores Mass Merchants (was Discount/Value pre-2017) Internet sites and mass merchants remain top two destinations Internet stores widen their lead +5% since 2016 -4% since 2016 -2% since 2016 -3% since 2016 -1% since 2016
14. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 14 Early Before October/ October/ November, before Thanksgiving Day/ Late November Black Friday/ Weekend after Thanksgiving/Cyber Monday/Late November December or Later December/January Nearly 40% of after-Christmas shoppers are buying non-holiday items Most consumers complete their shopping after Thanksgiving “By which one of these days or months do you expect to complete the majority of your holiday shopping this year?“ “Will any of your holiday shopping be after Christmas Day (December 25th)?” “Thinking about all of the holiday shopping you will be doing this holiday season, what percentage of your total holiday shopping will be done after Christmas Day - meaning December 26th through the 31st, or in January 2018?” “When you shop this year after Christmas day, will you still be buying items for this 2017 Holiday season, or for the next 2018 Holiday season?” 20% 26% 54% 38% 35% 16% 12% Buying for next 2018 season Buying for both seasons Still buying for this 2017 season Neither, I am taking advantage of after-Holiday sales for non- holiday items One in five shoppers will spend 23% of budget after December 25th When shoppers will complete majority of shopping Among those who shop after December 25th, reasons are: 80%
15. Shopping by age, income & education level
16. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 16 Higher income shopper segments ($100K+) are expected to spend nearly double the market average 19% 31% 13% 5% 58% 59% 63% 53% 22% 10% 24% 41% Overall <$50K $50K-$99K $100K+ Prefer not to answer Graduate-Professional degree Four-year degree High school or less Average holiday spend $1,226 $598 $1,232 $2,226 Education level of respondents by household income group (%) and anticipated 2017 holiday spend
17. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 17 Spending also varies with age, rising through the Baby Boomer generation and then declining significantly among Seniors $1,200 $1,223 $1,252 $1,274 $1,113 $1,226 GenZ Millennials GenXers Baby Boomers Seniors Overall Holiday season spending by age group
18. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 18 GenXers and higher income households (>$100K) plan to make the most trips Shoppers average 5.7 shopping trips during the season 5.5 5.5 6.2 5.7 <$50K $50K-$99K $100K+ Overall Average shopping trips by income level 4.8 6.0 6.2 5.4 4.6 Average shopping trips by generation “How many individual shopping trips do you expect to take when purchasing holiday gifts over the next several months?”
19. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 19 61% 58% 52% 48% 33%35% 38% 43% 46% 46% 4% 4% 5% 7% 22% GenZ Millennials GenXers Baby Boomers Seniors Percentage of budget spend by age group Younger shoppers and higher income shoppers skew more online Shoppers expect to spend more than half of their budget online Online 51%In-store 42% Others* 7% Percentage of total holiday budget *Others include Catalog or direct mail promotion 47% 52% 57% 44% 42% 39% 9% 6% 5% <$50K $50K-$99K $100K+ Percentage of budget spend online by household income Online In-store Other “What percentage of your total holiday budget do you expect to spend (online vs. in-store vs. other)?”
20. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 20 Internet leads among all income levels and age groups, but other venue preferences vary by income and age 38% 43% 58% 32% 48% 56% 23% 42% 44% Traditional department stores Mass merchants Internet/online only retailers Traditional department stores Mass merchants Internet/online only retailers Supermarkets or grocery stores Mass merchants Internet/online only retailers $100K + $50K - $100K By household income By generationTop 3 formats 30% 35% 38% 33% 45% 50% 29% 51% 53% 26% 44% 54% 26% 27% 51% Supermarkets or grocery stores Mass merchants Internet/online only retailers Traditional department stores Mass merchants Internet/online only retailers Traditional department stores Mass merchants Internet/online only retailers Off-price stores Mass merchants Internet/online only retailers Fast fashion apparel retailers Mass merchants Internet/online only retailers Baby Boomers Seniors GenZ Millennials GenXers <$50K “At which of the following types of retailers will you likely shop for holiday gifts?”
21. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 21 Ability to interact with product, avoid shipping costs and find inspiration top the list of reasons consumers shop in store 54% 51% 44% 59% 50% 44% 62% 49% 45% Ability to interact with the product Avoid shipping costs Gives me gift ideas and inspiration <$50K $50K-$99K $100K+ Reasons for selecting in-store over online: By age group GenZ Millennials GenXers Baby Boomers Seniors Ability to interact with the product 49% 52% 59% 63% 62% Avoid shipping costs 72% 47% 49% 47% 57% Gives me gift ideas and inspiration 29% 40% 43% 49% 51% Easier to make returns later 23% 31% 33% 39% 55% Need to acquire gifts immediately 42% 34% 33% 25% 31% 2 1 “What are the reasons you plan to shop in a physical retail store rather than online?” Most selected reason Second most selected reason Third most selected reason 2 2 2 1 1 1 33 2 3 3 1 1 2 3 3 Reasons for selecting in-store over online: By household income
22. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 22 69% 63% 65% 74% 71% 71% 78% 80% 70% Convenience - comfort of shopping from home Time saving Free shipping <$50K $50K-$99K $100K+ Top 3 reasons GenZ Millennials GenXers Baby Boomers Seniors Convenience - comfort of shopping from home 66% 67% 76% 83% 77% Time saving 64% 66% 74% 75% 74% Free shipping 68% 61% 72% 74% 80% Home delivery 48% 56% 71% 72% 77% 2 1 “What are the reasons you anticipate shopping online instead of in a physical store?” Most selected reason Second most selected reason Third most selected reason 2 2 2 1 1 133 2 3 3 1 1 2 3 3 Reasons for selecting online over in-store: by income level Convenience, time saving and free shipping top the list of reasons consumers shop online
23. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 23 54% 39% 55% 64% Overall High school or less Four-year degree Graduate- Professional degree Customers preference for reviews on independent websites (%) Spend, device usage and web research skew with education level High school or less 38% 28% Four-year degree 55% 44% Graduate-Professional degree 64% 41% Planned device usage for holiday shopping 1,226 765 1,159 1,812 Overall High school or less Four-year degree Graduate- Professional degree Average holiday spend ($) Consumers with graduate/professional degrees spend more on average ($1,812 vs. $1,226) and research products before purchasing at a higher rate (64% vs. 54%)
24. Digital influence: Use of online and mixed channels
25. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 25 Online pulls ahead as the destination for spend after reaching parity in 2016 Online Desktop/Laptop Online Mobile/Smartphone 2017 4% 3% 5% 42%In-store Online Tablet “What percentage of your total holiday budget do you expect to spend...? 51% Of dollars spent Online Catalog/Direct Mail Other %SpendingbyPurchasingMethod 10%+ 36%+ Desktop/laptop is still the go-to method for online spending 42% of dollars spent In store 47% in 2016 47% in 2016
26. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 26 Key store attributes driving retail format preferences (% very/extremely important) Online is winning by outperforming in-store venues in five key areas 31% 41% 62% 64% 64% 56% 57% 76% 76% 79% Variety of delivery options available Availability of hard-to-find/unique products Variety of products/styles available Products - high quality/trusted Ease of searching Internet/online only retailers In-store retail formats Note: The above chart depicts findings related to top 3 of 28 retail formats and 5 of 18 store attributes evaluated in Deloitte’s 2017 holiday survey. In-store retail formats include traditional department stores, mass merchant department stores, warehouse membership clubs, supermarkets, etc. * Findings from 28 retail formats
27. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 27 50% 36% I prefer shopping in the physical store rather than online for holiday products I prefer shopping online rather than in the physical store during the holiday season 32% It is important that the retailers I shop at have both a store I can visit and an online site “Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how much you agree with each of the following statements.” Still, for many retailers, maintaining a dual in-store and online presence will remain important
28. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 28 75% 75% 68% 62% 61% 59% 52% 48% 40% 32% 20% 19% 7% Browse online Make a purchase Check/compare prices Read product reviews Track order status Get product information: pricing and specifications Check product availability in a store or website Find and use discounts, coupons, sales information Get store locations Send/redeem gift cards Access social networks Accumulate loyalty points, 'badges,' etc. Scan product barcodes to find more product information 83% use desktop/laptop for holiday shopping “How do you plan to use desktop/laptop to assist you in your holiday shopping?” *Probability is based on a 100% base of 83% that use a desktop/laptop for holiday shopping The vast majority of customers will use a desktop/laptop during their holiday shopping journey The probability of converting a desktop/laptop shopper to purchaser is 75% Planned desktop/laptop usage
29. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 29 67% 65% 63% 60% 59% 57% 56% 54% 48% 36% 35% 30% 28% 27% Browse online Check/compare prices Track order status Get store locations Make a purchase Read product reviews Get product information: pricing and specifications Check product availability in a store or website Find and use discounts, coupons, sales information Access social networks Get text messages or exclusive deals from retailers Scan product barcodes to find more product information Send/redeem gift cards Accumulate loyalty points, 'badges,' etc. “How do you plan to use tablets, smartphones, or desktop/laptop to assist you in your holiday shopping?” Smartphones are widely used for browsing and price comparisons Planned smartphone usage 43% in 2016 The probability of converting a smartphone shopper to purchaser is 59%, significantly higher than last year
30. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 30 64% 67% 68% 67% 67% 69% 60% 61% 67% Browse online Get store locations Check/compare prices Track order status Check/compare prices Browse online Track order status Check/compare prices Browse online $100K+ $50K - $100K By household income By generation Top 3 smartphone uses 55% 56% 57% 61% 64% 65% 64% 64% 70% 65% 66% 69% 59% 61% 70% Check/compare prices Check product availability Track order status Browse online Get store locations Check/compare prices Check/compare prices Track order status Browse online Track order status Check/compare prices Browse online Check/compare prices Track order status Browse online Baby Boomers Seniors Gen Z Millennials GenXers <$50K ““How do you plan to use smartphones to assist you in your holiday shopping? Base: [Among Those Using Smartphone to Holiday Shop]?” Usage of a smartphone in the shopping journey varies slightly by income and age group
31. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 31 Smartphone shoppers most often turn to dedicated retailer apps or payment apps Paying by smartphone takes on many forms for shoppers *Multiple Choice. Will not =100% 12AC—N=Weighted Base 2034 Planned usage of mobile as a payment platform* 40% 36% 36% 22% 20% Pay a retailer with retailer's app (e.g. Amazon) Pay other people using an app (e.g., PayPal, and Venmo) Pay a retailer on their website (not using their app) Pay for purchases in physical stores with a mobile wallet (e.g., Apple Pay®or other mobile payment solution) Pay for services with an app (e.g., Uber, Seamless, or Car2Go)
32. Retailer policies: Shipping & returns
33. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 33 72% 44% 42% 31% 30% 13% Free shipping Easy returns Price matching Extended holiday hours (open early/close late) Discounts on expedited shipping Free layaway The majority of shoppers plan to take advantage of free shipping Will Take Advantage of… “In general, what retail offerings will you take advantage of when spending this holiday season?” “What percentage of your total holiday purchases will be influenced by any coupons and promotional offers that you receive?” Other notable retailer policies include easy returns and price matching
34. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 34 More Important… Fast Shipping 12% Free Shipping 88% Perception of Timeframe 2% 7% 45% 35% 6% 4% Same day delivery Next day delivery Delivery within 2 days Delivery within 3-4 days Delivery within 5-7 days Delivery within 1-2 weeks The vast majority believe fast shipping means delivery within 2-4 days Free shipping is more important than fast shipping “When you are shopping online, which of these two promises below would be more important to you?” “Which of the following would you consider to be ‘fast shipping’ and which would you not consider to be ‘fast shipping’?”
35. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 35 $5.6 $3.8 $1.6 $0.6 On average, would pay an extra… Would pay nothing extra for this 25% 32% 64% 88% Think they could order sometime after December 17th and still get free shipping 65% Most expect fast shipping but are only willing to pay a few dollars for same or next day delivery Willingness to pay for shipping remains low “How much extra, might you be willing to pay above and beyond regular shipping costs to receive a standard-sized gift package (price defined as $50-$100 US) within the shipping timeframes below?” “What is the latest day you think you can order gifts this year and still receive them by December 24th, under two types of shipping below? Assume a standard sized package.” $4.8 in 2016 $3.2 in 2016 $1.5 in 2016 $0.5 in 2016
36. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 36 43% Likely to do store pick-up for certain items* 62% 48% 31% 30% 16% 16% I can save on shipping charges I can get the item faster I can see the product first before I accept I can shop for other items on the same trip Worried about theft or loss during shipping Worried about shipping damage “How likely will you be this holiday season to buy a product online and then instead of having it shipped to you, you will go to the store to pick up the item?” “Why are you likely to buy online but pick up at the store?” *Buy Online Pick Up In Store (BOPUS): Certain categories include: 45% -- Electronics / 45% Home & Kitchen Savings and speed compel shoppers to pick up items in store
37. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 37 Home appliances, electronics and clothing top the list of categories shoppers plan to buy online but pick up in the physical store 45% 43% 43% 39% 31% 28% Home & Kitchen Electronics & Accessories Clothing & Accessories Toys & Hobbies Health & Beauty Other spend categories - tickets, data plans etc. Methodology: • The ‘highest spend category’ was identified for each respondent as the category which received more than 50% of the shopper’s holiday budget. • If no category received more than 50% of the holiday budget spend, then the respondent was categorized under ‘No-specific category’. BOPUS by Category
38. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 38 67% 63% 51% 41% 32% 22% 7% Can return item to any store, regardless of purchase location Has refund options other than store credit Accepts longer return window (30-90 days) No receipt required Accepts longer return window (At least 30 days) Allow returns with scan of identification (e.g., loyalty card or credit card) Returns policy is not important Most desirable return policies are returns to any store, generous refund options and long return windows “When holiday shopping in either an online or a physical store, which of these return policies are most important to you?”
39. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 39 42% I know things will eventually go on sale so I only buy sale items when holiday shopping Deals still compel to many shoppers, who will seek out opportunities to save “Using a scale of 1 through 5, where 1 means you "Very much disagree" and 5 means you "Very much agree", please state how much you agree with each of the following statements.” 44% I wait for holiday sales to buy other larger or big ticket items for myself or household 80% of respondents and 34% of purchases will be influenced by coupons/promotional offers 53% I don’t rely on Black Friday as much as I used to
40. 2017 holiday surveyCopyright © 2017 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. 40 About the survey This survey was developed by Deloitte and conducted online by an independent research company between September 6-18, 2017. A national sample of 5,085 consumers aligned with the US Census for age and income was polled which has a margin of error for the entire sample of plus or minus one to two percentage points. About the Deloitte Center for Industry Insights The Deloitte Center for Industry Insights is the research division of Deloitte LLP’s Consumer and Industrial Products practice. The Center’s goal is to inform stakeholders across the consumer business and manufacturing ecosystem of critical business issues, including emerging trends, challenges, and opportunities. Using primary research and rigorous analysis, the Center provides unique perspectives and seeks to be a trusted source for relevant, timely, and reliable insights. To learn more, visit www.deloitte.com/us/cb and www.deloitte.com/us/manufacturing. About Deloitte Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as “Deloitte Global”) does not provide services to clients. In the United States, Deloitte refers to one or more of the US member firms of DTTL, their related entities that operate using the “Deloitte” name in the United States and their respective affiliates. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more about our global network of member firms. This publication contains general information only and Deloitte is not, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your business, you should consult a qualified professional advisor. Deloitte shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person who relies on this publication.